Posts Tagged ‘uk energy prices’

What is going on in the UK energy markets?

Friday, February 5th, 2010

Ofgem yesterday warned that UK energy bills will rise above £2,000 by 2020, while British Gas has just announced a 7% cut. What is going on in the energy markets?

Why British Gas cut it’s prices?

British Gas, in common with other suppliers, has been under pressure for some time to cut its prices. The wholesale prices the energy companies pay to buy gas to sell on to customers have fallen by 60% since they peaked in September 2008, but energy companies have only cut standard prices by between 4% and 6% over the same period.

Price cuts have been heavier on discounted deals, such as internet-only dual fuel tariffs, which have fallen by up to 20%.

If wholesale prices have fallen why are bills only just following?

UK energy companies use various excuses to keep prices high, despite falling wholesale costs. Their main argument has been that because they buy large amounts of gas in bulk in advance, they are still using up the supplies they bought at peak prices.

However, UK industry experts say they expected these expensive supplies to have run out last October and that price cuts would follow. Nothing happened. Energy companies have instead been using the argument that, although wholesale prices have fallen, other energy related costs are rising.

Cynics might suggest that British Gas has decided to announce cuts now because it is expected to announce big profits this month. British Gas’s has made an extra £40m – £50m profit because of this winter’s cold snap.

I’m confused. Ofgem said prices would rise 25% yesterday.

Ofgem was talking about the impact on bills over the next 10 years. It suggests energy bills will rise between 14% and 25% by 2020 as the industry pays for the £200bn cost of investment needed to overhaul the current market. While it is good news that we are seeing small gas price cuts today, over the longer term the Ofgem projection is correct.

Stuart Lovatt 2010

What about electricity prices? Are they going to fall too?

I don’t see that companies will cut electricity prices. British Gas electricity prices are already very cheap. The electrical infrastructure including decommissioning of outdated power stations and investment in new low carbon electrical generation will mean price cuts in the electrical sector is unlikely to be cut.

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UK energy bills could rise by 60% by 2016

Monday, January 18th, 2010

Project Discovery is Ofgem’s most comprehensive review of Britain’s energy supplies. Today’s initial report outlines the challenges for Britain’s energy industry. To secure energy supplies and meet carbon targets investment of up to £200 billion is needed. This means customers could face potential price rises to fund this investment.

Energy regulator Ofgem has today highlighted the challenges to Britain’s gas and electricity supplies. Chief among these challenges are a growing exposure to a volatile global gas market and power stations nearing the end of their life.

Ofgem has drawn up four energy scenarios to assess the energy security risks over the next 10-15 years. They reveal a range of potential risks to supplies when exposed to shocks

Ofgem chief executive Alistair Buchanan said: “Our scenarios suggest that Britain faces a tough challenge in maintaining secure supplies whilst at the same time meeting its climate change targets.:

Britain will face significant levels of gas imports, in particular for gas power plants to replace lost nuclear and coal-fired capacity. This increases our exposure to uncertainties in the global gas market, supply disruptions and potential price increases.

Significant changes in the way in which we generate and consume power may be needed to manage the variability associated with increasing reliance on wind power.

Given the massive levels of investment needed, there is a high likelihood of rising consumer bills, especially if oil and gas prices continue their underlying rise since 2003.

“These are big challenges. Consumers are already enduring high energy prices,” said Mr Buchanan. “This is why we are consulting with consumer and environmental groups, the academic community and industry to ensure any policy proposals we make are grounded on the best evidence available. Early action can avoid hasty and expensive measures later.”

Ofgem have come up with four different scenarios that could happen in the future to our energy supplies, each scenario results in huge rises in our domestic fuel supply.

Scenarios:
Ofgem has drawn up four energy scenarios of the next 10-15 years to assess the risks for energy security. In the four scenarios there are reductions in carbon emissions of between 12% and 43% (from 2005 levels) and increases in energy infrastructure investment of between £95 billion and £200 billion. However the four scenarios would result in increases in domestic energy bills of between 14% and 25% by 2020 (from 2009 levels) – with the possibility that wholesale price spikes could lead to an increase in domestic energy bills of up to 60% in the interim.

Green Transition: Under this scenario there is a rapid economic recovery and a significant expansion in investment in green measures. Domestic renewables targets are met and energy efficiency measures are effective. GB gas demand falls but electricity demand increases due to greater use of electric vehicles and heat pumps. The effect on domestic consumer bills is an increase of 23% by 2020.

Green Stimulus: There is a slow recovery from the recession and restricted availability of finance. Governments around the world implement green stimulus packages to achieve environmental goals and boost economic activities. High carbon prices and government policies support investment in renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage. The effect on domestic consumer bills is an increase of 14% by 2020.

Dash for Energy: Global economies bounce back strongly but security of supply concerns prevail over meeting environmental targets. As a result GB renewables targets and the Government’s carbon budgets are missed. Competition between countries for energy resources results in tight gas supplies and high fuel prices. Planning and supply chain constraints prevent new nuclear plant from becoming operational before 2020. The effect on domestic consumer bills is an increase of more than 60% by 2016 before falling back.

Slow Growth: The recession continues resulting in investment in gas and electricity infrastructure being considerably lower than before the credit crunch. Low gas and electricity prices coupled with low carbon prices reduce incentives to build nuclear and renewable power plant. This results in an increasing dependence on imported gas for new gas-fired power stations. The effect on domestic consumer bills is relatively low in early years but an increase of 22% by 2020 as conditions tighten.

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Why an economic recovery will increase solar panels costs?

Thursday, November 12th, 2009

As the world economies begin their slow recovery from the credit crunch, what does this mean for a solar panel industry in its infancy?

Stuart Lovatt from Heat my Home says, “Over the last 5 years we have seen solar manufacturing and installations costs increase, due to rising cost of energy for manufacture, resources, materials and manufacturing costs generally is rising globally. It’s likely that solar panels will never be cheaper than they are now as future solar panels will be made of inputs {energy + materials} that will cost far more over the coming years.”

Stuart adds, “The irony of this situation is enormous. We are seeing a huge demand globally for this type of technology but as we use more natural resources, we push up the price further and as demand increases; this causes shortages as we are seeing in Germany at the moment, therefore pushing the price up even further. Think of children’s must have Christmas toys and you will get the jist.”

Using his solar industry experience, Stuart says, ” I remember speaking to potential solar customer years ago when solar was still an environmental product and people used to say, “I will wait until prices come down when everyone else gets solar panels.”, but no one envisaged the energy problems which we are beginning to see now and those who didn’t install then are regretting it now, paying far more for their solar installation than they would have done originally. This trend will continue and worsen as economic recovery arrives. Demand for energy globally, from countries such as China, India and Russia will push up already high energy prices further.

We are seeing energy pricing at the moment being kept artificially low because of the recession, so without doubt as our economies recover, demand will rise and costs will rise, not only in the solar panels industry but all industries.

Heat my Home is seeing a massive increase in enquiries for solar panels due to the recent high energy prices and people are now realising that the further we go down the chronological timescale the worse the situation will get, so if you are contemplating installing solar panels, today is the best of times.
Just remember that your neighbours will pay far more for their system tomorrow.

Stuart Lovatt is creator of Heat my Home with 8 years experience in solar technologies.

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Ofgem warns UK energy bills could surge 60%

Friday, October 9th, 2009

UK energy regulator calls for an investment of up to £200bn over the next decade in power plants and other infrastructure to secure supplies and meet carbon reduction targets.

Britain’s energy watchdog warned today that consumers could face price rises of up to 60% in their gas and electricity bills in coming years as energy supplies become more volatile.

In a review of Britain’s energy market, Ofgem called for an investment of up to £200bn over the next decade in power plants and other infrastructure to secure supplies and meet carbon reduction targets. “The need for this investment arises at a time of volatile world energy prices and Britain’s increasing dependence on gas imports,” it said.

The warning comes two days after E.ON announced it was delaying its controversial plans to build a new coal-fired power station at Kingsnorth, blaming falling demand due to the recession.

The regulator has drawn up four possible scenarios for the next 10 to 15 years. They would result in increases in domestic energy bills of between 14% and 25% by 2020, from 2009 levels – with the risk that spikes in wholesale prices could lead to an increase in household energy bills of up to 60% in the next seven years.

Ofgem chief executive Alistair Buchanan said: “Our scenarios suggest that Britain faces a tough challenge in maintaining secure supplies whilst at the same time meeting its climate change targets.

“These are big challenges. Consumers are already enduring high energy prices,” he said. “This is why we are consulting with consumer and environmental groups, the academic community and industry to ensure any policy proposals we make are grounded on the best evidence available. Early action can avoid hasty and expensive measures later.”

One possible scenario sees global economies bouncing back strongly from the recession, which could lead to renewable and carbon targets being missed. This prompted Ofgem to warn that prices could surge by more than 60% by 2016 before falling back.

Another scenario – with a hike in bills of 14% by 2020 – factors in a slow recovery from the recession, coupled with global investment in renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage.

A third scenario sees green measures coupled with strong economic growth, and consumer bills rising by 23% by 2020. Britain’s reliance on gas would drop but demand for electricity would increase with a greater use of electric cars and heat pumps.

A fourth possibility would see the recession restricting investment in new plant, especially renewables and nuclear, with increasing reliance on gas as a result.

Ofgem said the biggest challenges to Britain’s energy supply are the country’s growing reliance on a volatile global gas market and its ageing power stations.

Shadow energy secretary Greg Clark said the challenges in the energy sector came about because of government “dithering”.

He said the Tories would take “immediate action” to authorise 5GW of capacity in clean coal and publish planning guidance for companies wishing to invest in nuclear power – which he said ministers had held back without good reason.

“This is the characteristic over the last 12 years,” Clark said.

“There has been no policy, effectively. We are in the situation we are because they have had their head in the sand for 12 years.”

Ofgem said current rates of investment would have to be more than doubled to meet the high levels needed.

Consumer bills will be pushed up by the level of infrastructure investment and by the increasing cost of carbon – particularly if oil and gas market prices continue to rise as they have been since 2003, or spike sharply.

Gas dependence is predicted to increase “dramatically”, especially if environmental measures are not fully successful.

The regulator identified the greatest risk as maintaining gas supplies through a severe winter.

Ofgem said that while the outlook for this winter is “more comfortable” – with National Grid anticipating high capacity and good gas infrastructure – its analysis suggests “that existing regulatory and market arrangements may well be tested severely over the next two decades”.

Today’s report outlines the regulator’s provisional assessment of supply issues and is due to make further recommendations – potentially including new policy – at the end of the year.

Original Source: The Guardian

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Six years away from an energy crisis

Tuesday, August 11th, 2009

The good news for Britain’s energy supply is that the sheer scale of the recession has cut our electricity demand and carbon emissions. An impending energy security crunch has been postponed.

The bad news is that the recession will almost certainly delay investment in Britain’s energy infrastructure and encourage complacency.

Energy security is no longer something that we can take for granted. This week more than 100 people were arrested in Nottingham over a suspected plan to disrupt a nearby power station. Will there will be more disruptions at other coal-fired power stations or against new nuclear developments now that we know more about where they will be sited?

For the past two decades we have had ample reserves to absorb the shocks: now the margins are beginning to wear thin. Many of the existing power stations were built in the 1970s or earlier. All the coal-fired stations are more than 30 years old, as are most of the nuclear ones. They are all coming to the end of their lives and their reliability is inevitably beginning to suffer. Although significant numbers of gas power stations have been added, North Sea gas and oil supplies have been depleted at breakneck speed. After decades as an energy exporter, Britain now relies increasingly on imports of gas and coal.

Fast-forward to 2015 and the energy position could be precarious. By then the remaining coal power stations will be facing closure because of the pollution control requirements of the EU directive on large combustion plants. By then all except one of the existing nuclear stations will also be closed or facing closure. Having to replace so much coal and nuclear capacity in such a short period is unprecedented – except perhaps in wartime.

And at the same time because of the EU Renewables Directive the Government has committed itself to a crash programme to increase wind’s share of electricity generation from the current 5 per cent to perhaps 35 per cent by 2020. But not only will wind power do little to combat global climate change (the big issue is the projected increases in coal burn in China, India and developing countries), it is also expensive and may even reduce the security of supply. It is uncertain too. Few think that wind supply on this scale will be achieved – though, unsurprisingly, few politicians will admit this in public.

What will fill the gap and at the same time back up the intermittent wind? The answer appears to be gas, gas and more gas. We will be lucky if even a single new nuclear station comes on stream by 2020. The carbon emissions from new coal stations will need to be sequestrated underground, and that technology is not likely to be commercially available until well after 2020. So before 2020 it would have to be “unabated” coal – which sits uncomfortably with the climate change objectives.

The chances of enough gas stations being built on time are not looking good, so the gas will have to be imported, and at a time when across Europe everyone is dashing for gas too. The Russians are not increasing investment in new gas resources and doubts remain about their ability to meet Europe’s demand. Liquefied natural gas will be used to plug this gap, but the sources of supply are quite limited and again lots of other countries (especially the US and Japan) will want it too.

The scale of the investment required to plug the energy gap while pursuing renewables is enormous. The cost of building not only power stations, but also new transmission networks and gas storage facilities, fitting smart meters, developing an offshore wind industry and implementing energy efficiency measures will run to tens of billions, possibly more than £100billion in the next decade. Though the recession has brought a breathing space on the demand side of the equation, it has markedly worsened investment on the supply side. The credit crisis has made it harder and more expensive to finance investment; just when the investment is needed, finance has dried up.

This matters not only for customers – though they are likely to be paying a lot more. The rest of the economy depends on energy supply. Have a bit too much and we pay a small premium. Have too little and we pay a lot. These costs are the real burden on the economy and they are felt long before any physical interruption in supply. We should worry less about the lights going out and more about the costs to the economy of running our energy system on the edge.

Russia’s interruptions of its gas supplies to Europe for three weeks in January was another warning, as well as performance failures at our existing nuclear power stations. These may be isolated instances, but our vulnerability to such events indicates that all may not be entirely well with our energy systems.

Original Source: The Times

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UK has become too dependent on imported energy

Wednesday, August 5th, 2009

The UK should take a more “interventionist” approach to ensure new nuclear reactors are built — and in greater numbers — than currently planned, according to a report commissioned by Prime Minister Gordon Brown released on Wednesday.

The report by Malcolm Wicks, the former energy minister appointed by Gordon Brown as his special representative for international energy issues, said that “the time for market innocence is over” and that the government needs to do more to safeguard electricity and gas supplies.

The report, ‘Energy Security: a national challenge in a changing world’, recommended that the UK should generate 30 to 40 per cent of its electricty from nuclear power stations by 2030 – up from the current 13 per cent.

Mr Wicks said that the UK has become too dependent on increasingly imported natural gas for its energy needs and argues that state intervention is needed to accelerate plans to build a new fleet of nuclear power stations.

“The era of heavy reliance on companies, competition and liberalisation must be re-assessed,” he said. “We must still rely on companies for exploration, delivery and supply but the state must become more active: interventionist, where necessary.”

Other recommendations from the report include:

- Prioritizing Norway, Qatar and Saudi Arabia as the most significant bilateral relationships to UK energy security. Relationships built on a broad base including diplomatic, development and cultural collaboration will provide a firm basis on which to pursue the UK’s energy security goals.

- The UK should remain at the forefront in developing and demonstrating CCS technology.

- The UK should continue to ensure that energy efficiency is at the heart of energy dialogues with its global partners.

- The Government should do what it can to support EU work to promote diversification of routes and sources of gas supply into Europe including through the use of EU diplomacy to influence third countries where they are better placed to do this than the UK bilaterally.

The Government should do what it can to support EU work to promote diversification of routes and sources of gas supply into Europe including through the use of EU diplomacy to influence third countries where they are better placed to do this than the UK bilaterally.

The future is looking greener for investors as ambitious government targets for generating renewable energy are providing fund managers with new opportunities.

More than 30 per cent of the UK’s electricity could eventually be derived from renewable sources, according to the latest estimates, compared with just 5.5 per cent today. This would be twice the government’s legally-binding target of 15 per cent by 2020.

Much of this is expected to come from wind power but other sources, including biomass and tidal power, will also increasingly be drawn upon. The government plans to invest £100bn in the renewable energy sector, which could involve the creation of as many as 500,000 jobs. It has also set out new plans for reducing carbon emissions to help tackle climate change.

Fund managers say this increased commitment, together with a similar focus from the US, plus stronger moves towards clean energy from China, is welcome news for an industry that has been slow to take off – and has suffered more than others in the recent downturn.

Edward Guinness, one of the managers of Guinness Asset Management’s Alternative Energy Fund, says green energy companies were trading at a premium to the market before the downturn but were hit hard last year, particularly as funding dried up.

His fund lost 40 per cent in the year to the end of June, according to total return figures from Lipper.

A number of other renewable energy funds, most of which have been set up in the past couple of years, have had an equally difficult run. Lipper’s rankings show that, over the same period, BlackRock’s New Energy Investment Trust, the Premier Renewable Energy trust and the Jupiter Green Investment Trust all saw negative returns of at least 30 per cent.

But new opportunities now look to be arising, particularly in wind power .

“The area where government policy is really having an impact on our investing is on the wind side,” says Guinness. “The UK has much better resources in this area than in solar, and the government wants to make it easier to get planning permission.”

His fund typically invests in companies that derive at least 50 per cent of their business from either the manufacture and development of renewable energy generation or the improvement of energy efficiency.

Guinness says solar stocks performed well last month as demand started to pick up following a difficult 18 months, in which the prices for solar panels halved. The lower prices should trigger stronger growth, he says, while providers should also receive a boost from cheaper raw materials, lower manufacturing costs and improved subsidies.

Luciano Diana, portfolio manager of the Pictet Clean Energy fund, says wind power is more attractive than solar because it is much cheaper. He claims that, for the first time, there is a real push to new energy around the world.

“For a long time, it has just been Europe supporting it but now there is a big push from the US and also Chinese packages dedicated to cleaner energy,” he says.

Fund managers say much of the new government investment will be captured by the large utilities.

The Association of Investment Companies argues that moves to combat climate change should prove beneficial to some of the big utility and infrastructure investment companies.

John Murray, chairman of Ecofin, which invests in the utility and infrastructure sectors, says utilities have been largely oversold in recent months as investors have moved back into cyclical and recovery stocks. As a result, some companies in the sector are looking the cheapest they have been since 2003.

But, he points out: “Unlike in 2003, the fundamentals of the global utility sector are generally sound. Balance sheets are in relatively good shape and the utilities are proving that they are able to access long-term capital markets.”

Original Source: Power Engineering

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Ready to pay £200 a year extra for green energy?

Wednesday, July 15th, 2009

The stark admission by Ed Miliband, the UK energy secretary, that UK energy bills will rise by an average of £200 a year as the UK looks to bring in more renewable energy is sure to catch the eye of many. Claiming that “no matter which route we go down” Mr Miliband has warned UK consumers and businesses that energy costs are certain to rise in the short to medium term.

The UK government has already signed up to a carbon reduction programme which will see an 80% reduction in carbon emissions between 1990 and 2050 with up to £100 billion spent on renewable energy by 2020. At a time when many in the UK are struggling to make ends meet the government is set to introduce a 20% tariff on the average energy bill to cover the £100 billion investment programme.

It seems that the UK government has acted on behalf of UK consumers in signing up to a program which will increase energy costs by 20% a year for the foreseeable future. History has shown us that even in periods of short-term fundraising it is highly unlikely that energy bills will fall after the initial fundraising period is over. So the UK consumer and UK businesses need to get themselves ready for a significant increase in energy bills, aside from any future increase in the price of oil or other commodities.

Original Source: New Energy Focus

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North Sea ‘energy crunch’ on way, warns energy chief

Friday, July 10th, 2009

The UK faces an “energy crunch” if steps are not taken to help its offshore sector, an industry leader warned yesterday.

Oil and Gas UK (OGUK) chief executive Malcolm Webb was speaking after figures revealed falling investment and rising costs in the industry.

He said billions of barrels of oil and the gas equivalent could be left unrecovered in the North Sea if the UK Government did not act, increasing the country’s dependence on imports.

He repeated his organisation’s warning that 50,000 jobs could be at risk in the industry if ministers did not take steps to get investment flowing again.

Mr Webb spoke on the same day Gordon Brown told the G8 summit in Italy that the world’s major industrial democracies had to act to prevent oil price rises “choking” economic recovery.

He and French President Nicolas Sarkozy teamed up to warn that prices had been “dangerously volatile” for two years and had contributed to the global recession.

Mr Webb’s comments followed the publication of OGUK’s annual economic report, which showed investment in the offshore industry fell to £4.8billion in 2008 – down £1.2billion since 2006, despite the increase in both oil and gas prices.

Mr Webb warned investment could drop below £3billion in 2010.

There was also a sharp slowdown in exploration, which for the first half of 2009 was down 57% on the same time last year.

OGUK said its figures reinforced a call from the Commons energy and climate change committee for more investment incentives, and Mr Webb called for more help from the Department of Energy and Climate Change, as well as the Treasury.

He said increased investment would come only if costs fell, the tax burden was eased and problems in banking were resolved.

Mr Webb told a press conference held simultaneously in Aberdeen and London: “If we don’t see a turnaround soon, those 50,000 jobs, frankly, are still at risk.

“We have had the credit crunch. Next we will have the energy crunch.”

He added that changes to the tax regime in this year’s Budget were a “step in the right direction”, but they were not enough to trigger a rapid increase in activity.

“We fear the rate of decline in production will accelerate, leaving billions of barrels of oil and gas in the ground, perhaps never to be recovered.

“Similarly, any fall in investment will stunt the growth of our supply chain, which relies on UK Continental Shelf business to provide the foundation for its export activity. The UK simply cannot afford to allow this to happen.”

OGUK specifically called for tax measures to remove the 20% supplementary charge on new investment in existing fields and new field developments, as well as removal of the 50% petroleum revenue tax imposed on incremental investment in existing fields.

A Treasury spokesman insisted last night that the government had worked closely with oil and gas stakeholders over the past three years and announced measures in the 2008 and 2009 Budgets to support further investment in the North Sea.

“The 2009 Budget measures will help bring smaller and more technically challenging fields into production – potentially bringing forward an extra 2billion barrels of oil and gas, increasing the remaining reserves to be recovered from the North Sea by 20% and thus making a significant contribution to the UK’s energy security of supply,” he said.

A Department of Energy spokeswoman said: “We will continue to work closely with the industry to ensure that opportunities exist so that oil and gas which can be economically recovered is not left in the ground.”

Aberdeen North Labour MP Frank Doran said: “It is important that the government keeps very close contact with the industry and monitors progress because it is clear that in the future more incentives will be necessary to maximise recovery of oil and gas in the UK sector.”

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Liberal Democrat MP Sir Robert Smith accused Mr Brown of lecturing other world leaders on the dangers that rising energy prices could pose to the recovery from recession, “while failing to encourage production in his own back yard”.

SNP Westminster energy spokesman Mike Weir MP said the report “underlines a pressing need” for exploration and infrastructure incentives.

He said carefully targeted incentives “would cost a bare fraction of oil taxation”.

Steve Robertson, of energy consultancy Douglas-Westwood, said: “An energy crunch is arguably upon us already.

“We have seen a sharp decrease in activity levels this year, particularly in exploration drilling, where capital exposure is substantial. We should not forget this energy crunch impacts throughout the supply chain and operators are now putting huge pressure on oilfield service and equipment providers to cut costs dramatically.”

Original Source: The Press and Journal

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