UK energy suppliers will probably raise household natural gas and electricity prices for the next two years, fueling inflation that’s already near the highest in a decade, futures trading shows.
Natural gas for delivery this winter costs 54 percent more than utilities paid at the start of the year and futures contracts for the winter that starts in 2009 traded higher still, according to London-based broker ICAP Plc. Household energy bills, which increased about 15 percent in the first quarter, will rise to catch up, consumer group Energywatch said.
Rising utility costs will increase pressure on Bank of England Governor Mervyn King as he seeks to contain inflation that’s running at 3 percent and is forecast to exceed the government’s target for months to come. Centrica Plc, Britain’s largest energy supplier, said last month that first-half profit will drop because of higher fuel.
“The gas price has gone through the roof,” said Simon Edrich, a utilities analyst at ING Bank NV in London. “Everyone will need to raise prices to cover higher input costs. It adds to the inflationary pressures very significantly.”
Gas prices for U.K. households more than doubled since 2003 to an average 646 pounds ($1,264) a year, while electricity bills are 69 percent higher. The average household now spends 1,058 pounds a year on power and fuel, according to Energywatch.
King said on May 14 that record food and fuel prices will push inflation above the government’s 3 percent limit “for several quarters.” Policy makers kept the main interest rate unchanged at 5 percent yesterday and predicted that economic growth will slow to about a 1 percent annual pace in the first quarter of 2009, the lowest since 1992.
The UK is competing with buyers in Asia and Europe for gas supplies delivered by tanker and pipeline because North Sea fields are running dry. Offshore production in the U.K. fell 10 percent last year, according to the government.
Wholesale gas prices, which more than doubled in the last year, rose with Asian demand and the cost of oil. Crude in London has advanced 36 percent this year and reached a record $135.14 a barrel on May 22.
Reducing emissions and replacing older power plants will add to energy bills, Paul Golby, chief executive officer of Dusseldorf, Germany-based E.ON AG’s U.K. unit, told reporters June 3.
Centrica, based in Windsor, said May 12 that “stubbornly high” fuel costs will lower first-half earnings. Chief Executive Officer Sam Laidlaw said a price increase “looks inevitable.”
Forward gas contracts for delivery this winter reached a record 94.75 pence a therm on May 27 and traded at 94.25 pence today, according to ICAP. Gas for the 2009-2010 winter rose to a record 95.80 pence on May 27.
Electricity for delivery in the winter ahead traded at a record 84.25 pounds a megawatt hour today, more than double the price a year ago. Gas and power prices peak during winter months as colder temperatures spur demand for heat.
Scottish & Southern Energy Plc, the second-largest supplier, is “losing money at current retail prices and current wholesale prices,” Ian Marchant, CEO of the Perth, England- based company, said in a conference call on May 29. “There has to be an adjustment to one or the other, or both.”
Higher utility bills may compound challenges facing Prime Minister Gordon Brown, whose Labour Party trails the opposition Conservatives in polls by the most since the 1980s.
Darling’s Promise
The British government announced measures to help the poorest consumers cope with rising prices. Chancellor Alistair Darling promised to increase payments to the elderly and brokered an agreement on support with the country’s six biggest suppliers.
“I’m very worried about the high cost of energy, I’m worried about it at a macro level in terms of the impact on the economy,” UK Energy Minister Malcolm Wicks said in an interview on June 4. “We’re doing our best to protect the most vulnerable.”
Darling also held a meeting with the energy regulator to establish whether price increases by retailers are justified. The Office of Gas & Electricity Markets subsequently announced a probe into the energy markets, which are also being studied by a group of lawmakers.
“It’s accepted throughout the industry that there will be price increases,” Georgina Walsh, a spokeswoman for Energywatch, said in an interview. “It would be catastrophic” for the poorest consumers, she said.
Original Source: Bloomberg
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